Winter is Coming. Are you Prepared?

If you need any avalanche gear send me an email at crankitupgear@aol.com

A few thoughts on slope assessment, avalanches and safety gear. First thing to mention is try not to get avalanched by pre depart planning and weather and avy forecast research and ongoing dynamic risk assessment during your day. We live in an uncertain world never more so than now, with the political shenanigans and genocide. The only certainty is that we live with uncertainty and those of us who have spent our lives in the mountains accept this is just how it is on winter mountains. Sadly this uncertainty means we have all been caught out, despite making what we thought were good decisions. Me included. I count myself very fortunate having survived been avalanched, having seen so many folk who were not so lucky. The gear I sell is all very high quality Austrian manufactured "Ortovox" which have a long history of developing reliable technology that will not let you down. As a bonus all their transceivers also have a Recco reflector built in. We live with uncertainty, but our objective is to reduce that as much as possible. Look ahead, consult the avalanche forecast and plan ahead making decisions to avoid avalanche terrain. The mountains will be there another day so allow them to tell you to go home as well.

Free Touring. New folk will be entering terrain with avalanche risk. They need the knowledge and gear to do this safely

During travel look around you and observe what's happening under your feet and listen to the snow. Look for red flags such as avalanche activity, wind drifted snow, recent snowfall, whumping and cracking and also be wary during rapid rises in temperature as wet snow slides and cornice collapse can trigger huge slides such as occur in Observatory Gully and Lagangarbh Corrie to name but two. Based on the avy forecast (it's an area forecast and not cast in stone that its right!) and importantly what you observe, stop and do some basic snow stability tests. ECT or shovel shear and compression for example, or just deep hand and arm column sweeps if om the move and the snow allows. This is only to confirm what you should spatially be aware of.  Stopping and doing these tests is also an opportunity to talk with companions and air views and concerns, making the critical decisions of whether your about to bet with your life, or with of others relying on you. Its a fact that groups that are not hierarchical who communicate well perform better and have less catastrophic events than ones who allow experts to lead without question, or suffer peer pressure not allowing a folk to raise concerns.    

Looking up Coire na Tulaich and the main ascent descent route from the Buachaille. Three walkers are  under 10m+ of snow, possibly triggered by a group from above.

Before making a ski drop, or committing to a slope consider these factors:

Angle. Most avalanches are triggered on slopes roughly between 32 and 45 degrees. Below 32 degrees victim triggered slab avalanches are less common and above this angle slopes purge more frequently. The "Sweet Spot" where most avalanches are triggered is about 40ish degrees with over 90% of victim triggered slides occurring in a 7 degree range bracketing that sweet spot. You can conclude from this that angle is a really important part of slope assessment and subtle changes of angle on a given slope can have major consequences, therefore route choice and awareness of slope angle is really important. Modern phone apps make judging the angle much easier.  Rule of thumb for me personally is that as the avalanche forecast risk for a given altitude and aspect goes up - then the angle and altitude of what you ski comes down. More recent research has shown convexity/concavity to be less important than angle.

Anchors. What is the snowpack connected to. Have you been following the weather and SAIS forecast. Are there weak layers within the snowpack. Tree's and rocks can hold a slope as your friend or can be weak spots as your enemy where sun heat or hoar frost has gathered. Subtle angle changes create trigger points at these places. Tree's are also natures cheese grater if you get taken into them. Also ask yourself what the slope you are on is linked into from the underlying snowpack. Unstable snowpack can often propagate a collapse into nearby slopes and draw an avalanche into lower angled terrain.

Aspect. Which compass direction does the slope you want to ski or travel face. Like angle, subtle changes in aspect can take you from a safe slope onto a loaded one. Carry a compass and learn about "slope aspect" as both a navigation and safe travel tool.  The SAIS forecast gives you the necessary hazard warning for compass direction but you need to apply it on the ground accurately. Again some phone apps can help with this, and even give you the area forecast. The new SAIS app is a must for Scotland.

Altitude. You can see by looking at the SAIS forecast that the hazard risk is most often greater with altitude, even in Scotland. The rate of snow deposition is higher with height, and the wind is also stronger increasing side loading of slopes. On dodgy days stay lower as well as skiing lower angled slopes.

Folk need to know how to apply the forecast to trip planning by learning to understand what its telling you

Apply safe travel methods when skinning up and keep spaced and avoid terrain traps when choosing your skin line.  A slide coming from above will have the full width, breadth and depth bearing down on you. Unless its a clear runout your pretty well fecked as any stream bed or features will trap you and allow the snow to build up deeply over you. Choose your line well and with some thought.

Complexity. As mentioned above. Be aware of subtle changes in angle and aspect and that localised instabilities are hidden and like a landmine can link one triggered mine to a chain reaction and a small slide gathering surrounding instabilities into a major avalanche event. Learn to read mapping for subtleties of terrain features and how snow may be affected, and think safety by pre imagining what could go wrong. If it's a complex route then its often unsafe as there are too many unknowns. 

Commitment. Always have a plan "B" so that if conditions change or are not what you expected you have another safer option.  Commitment to a slope can mean no bale out options, i.e having no where to go.  If you look at the pro's on youtube they choose their line so they can bale out onto a spine and have good runouts and that's where the next "C" comes into play - consequences.

Consequences. If an amber light's on in your head so your in a go/no go process, then add consequence into the thought mix.  Are there crags, hollows, stream beds, tree's or any other terrain features that could shred you or trap you if there is an avalanche. Transceiver, shovel, probe and/or airbag will not stop you getting your limbs ripped apart from tree's, your head humped like mince, or with an inflated airbag under a few hundred tons of snow. Airbags are good with a save rate of between 10 and 13  more people per hundred victims - but only if the runout is good.

More up to date North American stats also show that many more people die from two of the triple "H" than was thought. Hypoxia and Hypercapnia kill quickly, even folk dug out very fast getting advanced life support don't often survive.

Triple "H" syndrome is Hypoxia, Hypercapnia (i.e re breathing your own carbon dioxide) and Hypothermia. 

Hypothermia can have a protective effect in rapid cold water immersion, but in an avalanche cooling is slow, especially as modern clothing retains heat so well. In fact its not so much the lack of oxygen as the hypercapnia that makes survival so poor in a an avalanche, and this with hypoxia is also related to snow density). 15 minutes as often shown in survival graphs is quite optimistic. You need to search fast and dig faster (which means practise  these skills more) as time is not on the victims side.

When dropping in stay next to each others tracks, go one at a time well spaced and from a safe area to safe area. What's a safe area?  Good question as sometimes there are none, but basically its somewhere out of any slide path that you can identify. Consider that if its a big slide it could encroach on your safety island so pick your spot with care.

Be prepared to carry out a rescue. You are on your own as organised rescue will be too late. Talk this over before dropping in. You should all have done an avy course and so will have the gear, done the pre checks and discussed a plan - won't you?  If you have not done an an avy course, then consider why the feck are you even doing this journey!

click for   Ortovox Direct Voice Video

Ortovox "Diract". Voice guides to help you through the search, 3 antenna & smart antenna tech (analyzes the device’s location in the avalanche and automatically switches to the best transmitting antenna. This means you get up to double the range and will be found more quickly!) flag feature, Recco inside. Lithium Ion rechargeable, blue tooth to phone (Apple and IOS) for any software upgrades and checks. 

The average depth of a buried skier is 1.5 meters. You need a good shovel and a structured method to remove the snow fast, get the victim's airway cleared and chest clear so they can breathe. Time to achieve this is crucial to beat "Triple H" the killer triad of Hypoxia, Hypercapnia (re breathing your own Co2) and Hypothermia.

Pro Alu III shovel. This also converts to a hoe which is really important when using the conveyor method to dig a victim out quickly as it speeds things up clearing behind the diggers on point conveyor shoveling. 

320 PFA Probe. As a pro user perhaps also working with Winter ML groups you need a longer probe for picking snow hole sites and also a longer one for the deep burials common to buried mountaineers in terrain traps.

Ortovox Safety Set includes  Diract Beacon, Beast Shovel and 240 alu Probe. This set saves a few £ over buying each item individually and a good option for free skiers. For those on a tight budget the "Zoom" beacon and safety set is adequate.

Mountaineers might also want to consider carrying Recco reflectors either as sewn in by the manufacturer or aftermarket. £50 gets your searchable with two reflectors. While this is not companion rescue it at least helps organised rescue such as MR find you as several MR teams and Scottish ski patrol have the Recco detector.

If you need any avalanche gear send me an email at crankitupgear@aol.com

Dwindle Wall basking in the late evening sun

In the late 1950’s early 1960’s a young Indian born star, living in Edinburgh studying philosophy, was shining bright on the Scottish climbing scene.  A veritable Sirius in the galaxy of rock climbing. The list of his legacy is long, even though his life was short. Killed in the Pamirs with Wilfred Noyce in 1962. Robin Smith, a name synonymous with hard quality rock climbs on Scottish mountain crags.

Glencoe is host to some of his outstanding climbs. A lesser-known Smith route aptly named Dwindle Wall, overlooks the upper Glen. Creag na Tulaich, a smaller buttress than Creag a' Bhancair below isn’t a big crag and Dwindle Wall starts at its left side in a chimney groove, then crosses its face before heading straight up to finish. When I climbed it with local Alan Thomson it was graded VS 150ft and had about four brief lines as the guidebook description. I was working my way through the graded guidebook list, and although it’s a short route it just had to be ticked off.

A sunny June afternoon and I was a bit fed up, as there wasn’t much to do after a training session on the road bike, so I gave Alan a phone and asked if he fancied an afternoon climb. He collected me in his car. We took my rack and twin 150ft 9mm ropes for the climbing.

We started off on a lovely route on the crag below called Cayman Grooves. Beautiful well protected climbing with lovely positions up to a belay on a terrace. You have to pick your time for this part of the crag as a raptor sometimes nests behind the tree belay and is best left alone if you hear or see it flying about. The next pitch goes up the left side of a big open groove without much gear, bold but easy enough climbing. The route to the right, Piranha is a lovey VS and to the left of Cayman Grooves is Walk with Destiny, which is in my opinion a superb route going at E2 5c.

Alan and I finished up and went up and over to the bottom of Dwindle Wall. I found the start and led off up the groove. It was a bit rattly if I remember right, and not much gear, although I found an old piton. Then you leave the sanctuary of the groove and traverse right along a ramp of good rock that is devoid of any protection. Very quickly you are in ground fall territory and running out rope with no gear as you move right and up.

At a point when well up the ramp disappears, then it’s up the steep wall above. No move is particularly hard. Maybe sustained 4c, but by this time you are 80 feet above your last gear and have another 40 to go to the top. I was about 15ft from the heather at the top above me when the rope wouldn’t move. I had run out of rope and there was still a couple of sketchy moves to make. It was hot and I was having to dig really deep to keep it together. I shouted as loud as I could for Alan to start climbing and gave a hefty two tugs on one of the ropes.

 Alan had some starting moves of about 5a on less than perfect rock, so this was a pretty serious situation. I felt some give on the ropes and waited a bit. Alan thought I was on belay, and he was safe. Was he fuck! I started slowly moving up and was a wee bit scared. Really scared actually, as I would fly if I fell, and go away past the bottom of the crag and would die.

 Alan wouldn’t be unscathed either. Eventually I got to near the top and its extreme heather pulling to get over the top. As a climber and rescuer going into shitty places you become accustomed to heather pulling and testing the quality of Calluna vulgaris for pulling on. This wasn’t good but grab enough then pull and hope. I got over with just enough rope and as Alan ascended I just kept walking, ready at any point to just fall down and grab anything if Alan should fall off.

Eventually I reached a spot where I could sit and brace myself against a big rock and waist belay Alan up. Fairly safe at last. 150ft (45m) ropes were just not long enough and 50m or even better modern 60m ropes would be better. Dwindle Wall is a bold route typical of Robin Smith, and even with modern gear I suspect it will test nerve and not be for those who are not accustomed to a bit of soloing or soul searching. Smith was truly a great climber. His route Marshalls Wall, down in the lower glen is also very bold. Named, I believe, after Jimmy Marshall, who to wind Robin up had called a winter route first ascent "Smiths gully" as he knew robin had it in mind. Retaliation from Robin Smith was naming Marshall’s wall after Jimmy, possibly as it was a line Jimmy was after. Tit for tat between young and old maestros of rock and ice.

Robin Smith aka "Wheech"

Darkness and Light

"The wound is the place where the light enters you" - Rumi

Its just after midsummer. On my own in reflective mood. Wandering old haunts and old thoughts. Old hurts, injuries, and a consciousness of those who have gone. Some by misadventure, others by their own hand. Many more when their time has run out, life lived. 

Thinking, as the sands of time run through we live more in the past than in the future. I talk of bygone days more. "Back in the day", "remember when?", "I remember the day ............." 

On a hill in the dusk of Wednesday night while walking, aching hips and old pains nagging, up I go on a path to the Aonach Eagach. I thought of this thinking of the past, and why it doesn't have to be that way. We allow ourselves to diminish with age perhaps?  As I wandered stiff and sore up the hill, my mood lifted. Into the dusk and impending darkness I felt light as I slowly got into my old hill walking rhythm, which no matter what weight I had on my back I could sustain for hours. That rhythmic breathing and steady heart rate, which as you warm up allows your pace to get faster as you go, not slower. As I went up into the gloom the years passed off and a great optimism and feeling of gratitude and love entered. I looked around and across at places where I had been fortunate to quest among great cliffs to find my sense of self and who I was as a young man. And just occasionally where I would find others less fortunate who were more physically lost than spiritually, needing a helping hand from me when a rescuer. I came off the hill after that evening wander a younger man again. Despite injuries and age the boy is still in the man and wants the sunset to last longer. That means climbing higher. And that's not always up a mountain. 

The weather plays a huge part in our moods and life in the West Highlands. It can lift you to ecstacy in a sunset, and bury you in profound seasonal depression in endless rain and darkness. Bipolar weather that triggers cyclothymic feelings. Unless you embrace the unpredictable weather it will drown you in despair. The good days are the rapid chargers. Even just a little bright sun sends wattage into your soul and lifts your spirit. I like to take pictures of these days to remind me of them.

Sunrise from the East over the A82 January

Looking West from Ben Lora March

Morven from Cuil Bay July

Climbing Grades and some Glencoe Climbing History

Crowberry Ridge. Starting Abrahams Ledge

Rock climbing as a sport on the Scottish mountains in its own right really got going in the late Victorian era. Although there was initially a residual feeling that Scottish rock climbs were only training for the Alps or greater ranges. As folk took up the sport an element of competition set in. The formation of the Scottish mountaineering club was an important part of that, as club members vied for the best line up a mountain (a line being the most aesthetically pleasing route up the rocks). Also, competition for the first ascent or making a repeat ascent of the hardest route up a rock face. Competition came from visiting climbers, from places such as the Lake district, where  there was already a small but established rock-climbing scene.

One Glencoe route Crowberry ridge via the direct line made by the English Abraham brothers in 1900 was Scotland’s hardest and most sought-after climb pre-WW1. It was not just the men. Alpine club pictures of ladies making guided first ascents of the European alps wearing the cumbersome attire of the day, show they were as good and perhaps better than some of the men. And in they were also leading at the sharp end not just belaying.

1908 Pauline Smith and Lucy Rankin on Salisbury Crags

The early climbs were graded from moderate to Severe, then later Very Severe was added. This remained the hardest technical grade for nearly 80 years in Scottish guidebooks. As climbs received ascents word of mouth would spread the information as to a routes falling off potential and injury or death likelihood. And how technically hard a crux (the hardest climbing move and point of no return) was. To indicate the very hardest of these very severe routes, a graded list would be compiled in a guidebook, with the hardest and most serious routes at the top, and the easier ones at the bottom. Supposedly based on consensus. Being subjective and at the whim of egos this could result in anomalies. No climber liked to admit a route was desperately hard for them, and so some were placed much further down the list than they should have been. Climbers had a term for routes that are harder than the grade in the list and called them “sandbags.”  The unwary could find themselves with the dreaded vibrating sowing machine leg from fear and have to dig deep in themselves.

Buachaille Etive Graded List

The more experienced climbers always knew grading was a lottery and kept a bit in reserve, or they could push through this fear, but the less experienced could give themselves a big fright. Grading evolved and later Hard Very Severe and Extremely severe were added to the grading system as folk pushed the technical boundaries of rock climbing. Also, better safety equipment placed into cracks or features in the rock as protection, and post WW2 the advent of more dynamic ropes. Coming off might result in a frightening fall, but not hitting the ground and getting maimed or dying.

In the 1980’s The "E grade" an Extremely severe grade (previously just written as XS) became a number system to represent the risk of falling, including a falls consequences came into use. This occurred in parallel with a number system to indicate the hardest technical move on a climb, or an indication of a succession of less hard but endurance testing climbing moves. Many of the graded list routes at the top of the graded list from the 1950’s onwards received extremely severe as a new grade along with a technical grade; these climbs were ahead of their time. In the following chapter you will read of Smith, Marshall, Cunningham and the invader Whillans, all of whom were the very best climbers of their generation, and well ahead of the rest of the Scottish climbing fraternity in boldness and technical ability. Robin Smith in my opinion was technically the best and the boldest, and Marshall the most prolific, with an eye for the best line. Their legacy is stamped all over the Glencoe and surrounding area in climbing guidebooks.

Rock climbing grades:

Moderate – A scramble such has the Aonach Eagach

Difficult – Steep but on good holds. Bear in mind the early pioneers climbed in nailed boots so it would have been difficult climbing even if not technical. Bowstring on Aonach Dubh is a classic example.

Very Difficult (V-Diff) - Steeper, longer and careful use of hand and footholds required. Archer Ridge Aonach Dubh as three-star example.

Severe – Up until about 1920 when the Buachaille Chasm on the Glen Etive side was ascended, this was hardest grade in the Glencoe area. Later the caveat Hard Severe (HS) was added for some routes that were not quite very severe but had a higher risk of catching out the average leader. Rainmaker Gearr Aonach is an example of Hard Severe and not to be underestimated as the approach requires thought, and it is a mountain route. It is probably VS 4b/c but historically remains HS.

Very Severe (VS) – Technically demanding rock climbing for the best climbers of the day pre-WW2. Crow’s Nest Crack Buachaille Etive is the epitome of a short mountain VS and it deserves its 3 star rating as an outing.

Hard Very Severe – A later addition to the traditional grading system. Although probably no more technically demanding than Very Severe with similar fall consequences. Routes falling into this grade are often a bit more physically demanding than technical. Spider on Aonach Dubh is a fine example of the grade, and a very fine well protected pitch up a steep wall.

Extremely Severe – Routes that are technically demanding and therefore with a very much higher chance of falling. “E” numbers reflect this. Routes now go up to E10 and beyond. Definitely death potential on some of the highest E numbers. At the lower end of the E grade, routes like Bloody Crack, YoYo, Big Top and Trapeze are fine examples of Glencoe E1’s, with Shibboleth and Lechers Superstition E2’s

Davy Gunn Ardverikie Wall- Boots

Technical Grades:

4a - Fairly easy but technical climbing on good holds. Often equates to Severe

4b - A little bit more thought required. Hard Severe or easy very severe.

4c – Very Severe. Often with a distinctive crux climbing move requiring some thought. As mentioned, Crow’s Nest Crack on Buachaille Etive was regarded by locals as the definition of VS. Routes were often referred to as harder than, or easier than Crow’s Nest Crack by local climbers.

5a – A little bit harder than 4c!

5b – Harder and more strenuous. Many classic mountain routes of the late 1950’s and early 1960’s in the book “Hard Rock” are technically 5b. Often graded E2 5b to represent a multi pitch route with more than one crux pointm and many places where a little boldness helps.

5c – Technically hard sequences of climbing moves, or a short very hard section. Hard climbing. Carnivore Villains Finish with its sting in the tail, and the excellent Clearances on Aonach Dubh are examples. As you go up the technical grade, the difference between the higher numbers narrows and can be subtle. As an example making two 5c moves in a row feels like 6a

6a – Hard technical climbing. Often alongside E4 as small holds and complicated sequences of climbing moves. Freakout on Aonach Dubh is a well protected example. The Clearances on Aonach Dubh's North Face at 5c should feel easier, but it doesnt feel like it as a more serious place. As you can see climbing grades can very subjective. There is vast difference between an E3 5c on a roadside crag and two pitches up looking down 2,000ft to the road from Aonach Dubh's North face. The same can be applied to a Polldubh Glen Nevis VS 4c which is a world apart to the atmosphere of a route graded the same such as the excellent Ravens Edge on Buachaille Etive. Technically similar, but one is quick hit and the other a memorable day out looking into the bowels of Ravens gully. 

6b, 6c, 7a,7b, 7c and up, things just get harder and more desperate!  

Pre WW2 hard routes were sometimes done in plimsoles. Routes such as "Satan’s Slit and Red Slab climbed in September 1939 were bold routes on Rannoch Wall. Climbed by Ian Ogilvy and party in "rubbers" as they called them. After WW2, the Vibram boot sole allowed harder routes to be climbed in boots. Rigid shanked boots on a rubber soled boot allowed precise placement of feet. The Vibram sole instantly made damp or wet routes like Clachaig gully technically easier, but not shorter or easier to find your way up its 30+ pitches (The 5 main pitches in the middle are the most difficult). Around 1950 a dedicated rock climbing shoe made by Pierre Allain in France, the PA as it became commonly known as, revolutionised technical rock climbing. Followed later by the Edmon Bourdonneau shoe known as the EB after he bought out Pierre Allain. Not until the advent of the Spanish made "Fire" rock shoe with its tacky and sticky formula one tyre rubber 30 years later was there an improvement.  However, us oldies still call our modern sticky rock shoes "EB's" regardless of who makes them!

A late 1960's and 70's Classic from the top of the graded list. Carnivore

Avalanche Jenga Season

Recco Training at Glencoe Mountain
 Nevis Range and Glencoe Professional Ski Patrols

These musings by a now almost, but not quite, burnt out arm chair pundit who has been buried  and also weilded a shovel too many times in avalanche recovery, should not be taken as gospel, just my personal opinion. Always seek out other opinions. 

Forecasting and local avalanche risk assessment is about prediction based on past and future weather forecasts, therefore it will always be uncertain, and a game of probability. Especially when what is an area forecast is  applied more locally. Local topographic effects, and slight weather variations will make a difference. 

As an example. There may be a difference between the Glencoe Mountain ski area weather and snowpack at the East end of Glencoe, and the Ballachulish Horseshoe circuit at the West end. Interpretation and application of forecast information to a trip is a process of increasing or decreasing uncertainty. Its rarely 100% certain. That's why a degree of flexibility in decisions and dynamic risk assessment is essential during a day out in the mountains. Conditions might be quite different to what you thought, and plans will need revised. Mountaineers and skiers who reach pensionable age have become good observer's of small and subtle weather and snow pack detail, and possess a spatial awareness while also being very respectful of the mountains while  journeying among them. Its not required to achieve an objective some days, and quite enough to listen to what the mountains are saying to you. This may be go home, or it might be todays the day, so get the rope/ski's on and enjoy.

In off piste skiing and touring, you couple uncertainty with risk homeostasis from airbags, carrying the three avalanche rescue essentials of transceiver, shovel and probe. Have a ponder that its a recipe for feeding the white room spin cycle if you don't stop and think. The decisions you make with the presence of consequence reduction kit such as these should be no different to that ones you would make if you left them behind. The idea is not to get avalanched and need them. Acknowledging human fallability and uncertainty, they are there of the unforseen "Black Swan Event", a phrase nore commonly used in the world of finance, for an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict.

The top graphic is pretty obvious. Its pretty certain that natural and human triggered avalanches are predicted above 650m on North to South Eeast aspects, and a localised avalanche risk is present below this altitude from the North West through South. Most folk with a brain will avoid the areas above 500m (allowing a bit of leeway!). RED is the colour of danger (obviously) and folk will choose to go to safer aspects, which in the above is green, which as a colour the colour of greater certainty of safety. Things become less certain on yellow, and very uncertain at orange. This uncertainty especially at Orange is where the risks are, as the risks are localised. Yellow the probability of getting caught is less, but still uncertain, stick a localised considerable orange strip in there and you have a mine field of uncertainty lying in wait.

How do you mange or minimise risk if you have to travel on these aspects, or choose to ski them? Well you don't manage the risk with any degree of certainty as you just don't know for sure where weak spots are, and you will for sure not know the true propagation risk from a trigger. You can't minimise a risk you don't know.  For the inexperienced person there is a temptation to look at these localised hot spots in the graphic and think you can avoid them, thinking, surely I will recognise these weak areas and can ski/walk/climb around them. Folk dont though, which is wahy folk still die in Scottish avalanches.

So my take on why it is that most folk get whacked when the risk is considerable or localised, is that being outdoor optimists (as we all are), and perhaps having got knackered climbing up a mountain or skinning into a valley, or maybe having a bluebird pow day, folk get used to that middle risk level, as it's used the most representing the most common and therefore familiar avalanche conditions that occur for the longest periods.  That  risk level has the most uncertainty and therefore is the most dangerous for the winter sports person IMHO

I suppose if you were to roughly put a % chance of probability of being avalanched on the European avalanche scale you could say that:

Black 100% chance of getting whacked while either minding your own business, in Galtur or being suicidal side piste in Tignes

Red   98% chance of getting whacked on an aspect with that high level of risk. The Scottish highest level of risk.  Apart from the Gaick Lodge avalanche, our main roads and villages are not in avalanche run out zones so Black does not apply. If an aspect is RED in the forecast then go to the pub or climbing wall or find a nice safe low level walk or ski run.

Orange   If the rose is all orange then in my view its just the same as red, just a tad less obvious. You have a very high chance of getting whacked. Stick some localised Orange risk in among yellow, then it becomes 50/50 and that's scary uncertainty, as some folk think they can recognise the danger hot spots and avoid them. Maybe they can, but then maybe not. Its certainly dicing with the big white avalanche room. This would be low angled slope day for me, well away from run out areas. The more times you roll the dice in the orange/considerable risk zone then the more chance you won't be needing your old age pension. 50/50 isn't odds, its worse than Russian Roulette!

Yellow maybe a 40% of getting away with it, but victim triggered death is still very likely if you hit a hot spot and it propagates into something bigger. Even if smaller avalnches can be lethal especially if it takes you into a terrain trap. This is true of all terrain features you can end up in if avalanched.

Green Well, either its the best of Scottish neve and you should be climbing with the axe and crampons in blue skies, or be getting the lawn mower out. If its the best of Scottish neve and its a sunless aspect then watch out next time it snows as there's could to be something growing on the top surface like hoar or faceting that will give a higher avalanche risk when it next snows fi its early winter especially.

Piss or get off the pot
Only one thing is for sure, we can only manage uncertainty up to a point. We live in a chaotic universe, bad things happen to good people, and a lot of good things happen to good people as a reward for getting out there making the effort. I think we have to accept that the line between the best day skiing of your life, and getting taken out by a slide is pretty close if you want to ride the powder days on higher angled slopes. If you don't accept that take up another sport.  We can reduce risk by managing uncertainty, and reduce consequences by equipment and terrain choices. Avalanche prediction and avoidance will never be 100% accurate. I am told knitting is pretty safe, if you prefer a more sedate pastime with a surer risk assessment.

Avalanche Types and Uncertainty
Some types of avalanche are more predictable i.e "certain" and some less so and some types of avalanche risk can be more easily seen in tests and observations. The ones that concern us the most are the least predictable with the greatest uncertainty so require extreme caution. Windlsab is the biggest enemy. Have a think about the following:

• Aspects that might be affected from a weather forecast, and very importantly observed wind direction 
• Angle of slope based on contours, precipitation type and deposition 
• Altitude, and what the precipitation is, and its likely rate of deposition 
• Anchored to. Whts under the snow,  based on summer knowledge of your ski patrol/local area.  Or avalanche forecasts that mention  surface or deeper instabilities within the snow pack.

Wet snow release triggering a weakly anchored slope

Powerful wet snow glide avalanche that takes everything in its path. Buachaille Etive above Lagangarbh. You don't want to be in here if its raining during a thaw just after a big snowfall.

Persistent slab, skier triggered slab March 30th 2013 Glencoe Mountain Ski Area - Fatal

Organised rescue teams use RECCO which is harmonic radar that can also be used from a helicopter. RECCO is a standard search tool by mountain rescue in Europe. Three Scottish mountain rescue teams, and threes ski patrol's use it. No search and rescue helicopters have adopted it in the UK for avalanche rescue to date, but the hand held can be used from a helicopter with an adaptor system from a 3rd party manufacturer. I have one here in Glencoe as I am also the UK trainer for Recco.

A skier going off piste or touring in the mountains should carry three essential items. A transceiver to be located, or to locate a buried companion, a collapsible snow probe to confirm the victim’s location, and a strong aluminium shovel to dig them out quickly.

Recovery of buried companions in an avalanche is time critical with a 90% survival if victims are located and dug out within less than 15 minutes. After this time survival is very poor. It follows that practise in locating and digging out a victim is critical. 

Killin Mountain Rescue and a group of Freeride skiers using the  Glencoe Mountain Avalanche training park

Recco is another important part of the organised rescue strategy. Education and avalanche avoidance is primary, being found early by companions if it goes wrong is vital, and prior practice makes this work. Organised rescue requires a triple response: Dogs, Recco and Probe Lines. Survival is time critical. Much has been made of trauma being the main factor in poor survival in Scottish avalanches. Largely based on a few tragic avalanche incidents where trauma has been the dominant factor.

Anecdotal observations and opinions make easy to forget the victims where triple"H"syndrome has been the killer, of which there have been many over the last decades. Anecdote is not enough, and there is no data from coronial studies in Scotland to support the Trauma versus Triple H debate.

Being searchable and located quickly increases survival. Some Scottish MR teams already have Recco as part of their search strategy (Tayside, Glencoe, Cairngorm MRT's) and Glencoe Ski Patrol. There has been a demand for buying two single Recco reflectors to carry by mountaineers. One in a front pocket and one in back (on the person. never the rucksack or ski). Reflectors are light, passive requiring no battery and small. For the burdened winter mountaineer already with a heavy pack it provides a cheaper and lighter option than shovel, probe and beacon.

I can imagine nothing worse than a victim recovery delayed because a search team did not have a Recco detector and the victim when recovered is found to have either a Recco reflector or a harmonic like a mobile phone on them. Recco detectors are of course for "organised rescue". Recco and the many clothing manufacturers who sew in the Recco relflectors, endorse the view that not getting avalanched through education and training is best. However, in the real world shit still happens, and unless someone is "searchable" a rescuer cannot find them quickly. Even if the poor victim has bottomed out of the survival curve a vistim recovered quickly reduces rescuer risk exposure, and provides some closure to waiting family. 

How does a Recco Reflector work?

• Professional rescuers can quickly pinpoint a buried reflector-equipped person’s precise location using harmonic radar. Often quicker than a transceiver.

• This two-part system consists of a RECCO R9 detector used by professional rescue groups, and RECCO reflectors that are attached to clothing, helmets, protection gear, and boots worn by skiers, mountaineers and riders and other outdoor users.

• When used in conjunction with a RECCO Detector, the reflector's diode mixer acts as a harmonic generator to produce multiples of the frequencies received from the detectors.

• The returned signal is translated into an audio tone whose volume is proportional to the returned signal, and by means of volume control, a trained rescue operator can literally go straight to the buried reflector once a signal is detected.

• It is a non-powered device meaning that it never needs to be switched on, will never lose signal strength and needs no batteries to function. It is maintenance free and has a virtually unlimited life.

• In total more than 900+ search & rescue organizations in the world endorse it.

The Recco Rescue System is different from an Avalanche Transceiver because its a small band-aid size sticky transponder which is not powered, the reflector can be applied to your boots or helmet, the Recco detector does not contain any antennas and cannot be picked up by an avalanche beacon, the Recco detector has a range of over 200 metres which professional mountain rescue teams can pick up in the case of an avalanche.

Due to it not being a passive device the reflector will not lose signal strength and no battery to malfunction. 

We should not forget Robert Burnett's remarkable twenty two hour survival in the Southern Cairngorms. All victims surely deserve the benefit of the doubt, with  rescuers throwing all resources at an attempt at a a live recovery.

Robert Burnett - 22 hours Buried.  Pic courtesy of Hamish MacInnes

A really good summary of this pretty miraculous survival on the web site 

RECCO Proffessionals

The hand held R9  Recco detector is the size and weight of a hard back book and easy for rescuers to get to the scene and search with.

The underslung Recco SAR pod picture right. Searches 200x200m in a minute and the above Austrian crew hadsjust recovered a victim located with it.

Recco Helicopter based SAR is based at these sites, with more added including a prospective private North of England site soon:

• Switzerland – Zermatt, Sion
• Italy – Aosta, Bozen, Trento
• Austria  – Hohenems, Innsbruck, Linz, Graz
• Norway – Alesund, Hastad, 
• Sweden – Ostersund 
• Canada – Snohomish Helicopter Rescue Team, Snohomish, WA
• United States – Alpine Helicopters, Canmore AB

Live recovery of a victim located by her Recco reflector
 

Glencoe Ski Patrol doing a precautionary combined 457mhz transceiver search and Recco harmonic search on the "Fly Paper". The R9 detector searches both, and at close range can find many other harmonic devices such as mobile phones.